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| A train crash in China's Zhejiang province killed at least 32 people |
We have noted on several occasions the current uptick in social instability and social unrest over the past year and the aggressive security response. Even today, we’ve seen increases in arm patrols in Kunming and Yunnan province with no current explanation. Although Beijing has always been sensitive to mass protests, we’ve noticed in the past year, especially beginning this year with the "Jasmine" protests, that there has been an increased sensitivity towards any type of unrest. Now the Jasmine protest didn’t amount to much, but what was most important about them is that they were more on a national scale than the local-level protests that are more manageable to Beijing.
Beijing’s sensitivities were showcased last week in the aftermath of the Wenzhou train crash. Even the Party’s mouthpiece, Xinhua, ran a story on the accident quoting Liu Tiemin, who said it was not an appropriate rescue at all. And the People’s Daily said that the country wants development but not a blood-soaked GDP. The government quickly covered up the incident by actually burying some of the mangled train carriages and, with it, also burying evidence to do further investigation.
The censors quickly sent out directives to the media to mute any critical coverage of the accident. Again, nothing new, although some journalists have said that this is one of the more desperate bans on the media that they’ve noted in the recent past.
What is new, however, is the open defiance of this ban. One of China’s weeklies, the Economic Observer, was said to have continued to run stories even after this directive was made. Furthermore, China’s micro-blogging service Weibo, which operates similar to Twitter has continued to showcase angry citizens’ complaints over the crash, and many journalists who were banned from writing on the crash have reposted their pieces on Weibo.
What is new, however, is the open defiance of this ban. One of China’s weeklies, the Economic Observer, was said to have continued to run stories even after this directive was made. Furthermore, China’s micro-blogging service Weibo, which operates similar to Twitter has continued to showcase angry citizens’ complaints over the crash, and many journalists who were banned from writing on the crash have reposted their pieces on Weibo.
Despite China’s huge sensor army they have been unable to clamp down on the massive outcry, and there are even now hints that China may shut down Weibo entirely in an effort to curb the deluge. It is one thing for Weibo that caters more to the computer-literate and to the upper and middle classes to post stories of social frustration, but when the state media also does so, it taps into the deep-seated frustrations of the masses. It is the spread of dissatisfaction and the potential for disparate socioeconomic groups to unite that is most worrisome to Beijing.
Beijing is known to deflect internal criticisms by expanding on international tensions and there are now rumors that they may use the South China Sea issue to deflect attention away from these domestic concerns. This may even lead to some military confrontation. In the meantime, in an effort to rein in the rapid use of the Internet and its ability to harness public opinions, Beijing has recently announced a new security initiative to install on all public WiFi a system that monitors all Internet activity and records customers’ identities.
Although Beijing claims that this effort is to decrease lawlessness, due to heightened sensitivities we can only assume that it would also be used to tap into discussions that are increasingly turning toward Beijing and national criticism over issues like corruption and GDP growth at the expense of public safety. With tensions in the government already growing as the 2012 transition nears, as well as it a slowing economy on the horizon, it is the reaction to the unexpected that could serve as an important bellwether to China’s future.